Cal Poly vs. Colorado State Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, November 12, 2025
Cal Poly Mustangs (2-1) vs. Colorado State Rams (2-0)
Week 2 of the 2025-26 college basketball season continues Wednesday, November 12, with the Cal Poly Mustangs taking on the Colorado State Rams in the non-conference battle at Moby Arena in Fort Collins, CO, and we’ve got you covered with our Cal Poly vs. Colorado State prediction.
The Mustangs have never met the Rams before. Colorado State opens as a heavy 19.5-point favorite, while the total sits at 165.5 points.
Read more about this Cal Poly vs. Colorado State prediction, and check out all our NCAAB picks for Wednesday night. The tip-off at Moby Arena is set at 9:00 PM ET.
Cal Poly aims for its third straight W
The Cal Poly Mustangs played three games in the opening week. After a heavy 94-64 defeat at USC on opening night, the Mustangs won consecutive games over Pacific Lutheran 101-79 at home and Seattle U 73-71 on the road.
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Last Saturday, the Mustangs stunned the Redhawks as 9.5-point underdogs. Cal Poly shot just 39.7% from the field (11-for-33 from deep) and committed 23 turnovers, but they somehow managed to hang around, and Jake Davis beat the buzzer from downtown to lift the Mustangs over the Redhawks.
It was Davis’ first 3-pointer of the season. The 6-foot-4 junior guard finished the game with nine points and four rebounds, while sophomore wing Hamad Mousa led the charge with 18 points and eight rebounds.
Mousa, a transfer from Dayton, tallies 17.7 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. Sophomore guard Cayden Ward posts 15.0 points and 5.0 boards per contest, while fellow sophomore G Peter Bandelj averages 14.0 points and 4.0 assists.
Colorado State has won two straight, too
The Colorado State Rams went 2-0 SU and ATS in the opening week. After a 98-64 thrashing of Incarnate Word at Moby Arena on opening night, the Rams defeated Omaha 97-74 as 14.5-point home favorites this past Sunday.
Colorado State made 60.4% of its field goals against Incarnate Word. The Rams outrebounded the Cardinals 43-20 while going 13-for-25 from deep and 27-for-30 from the foul line. Junior guard Brandon Rechsteiner led the way for CSU with 19 points and six assists.
Against Omaha, the Rams shot 54.7% from the field (11-for-29 from deep). The Rams posted 22 more rebounds than the Mavericks and went 28-for-33 from the foul line. Sophomore forward Kyle Jorgensen led the charge with 25 points and nine rebounds, and junior forward Carey Boots had 13 points and 11 boards.
Jorgensen was excellent against Incarnate Word, notching 15 points, nine boards, and four assists in 26 minutes on the floor. The Rams returned just three players from their 2024-25 roster, and Jorgensen is one of them. He averaged 4.0 points and 13.1 minutes across 34 appearances as a freshman.
Cal Poly vs. Colorado State Pick
Spread Pick for Cal Poly vs. Colorado State
- Colorado State -19.5 (5 units)
The Rams’ offense was firing on all cylinders in the opening week. Colorado State made 24 of its 54 attempts from deep, and I expect more of the same when the Mustangs come to town.
Cal Poly is not a bad offensive team, but the Mustangs’ defense won’t be able to cope with the Rams. The Mustangs allow 10.3 3-pointers per game (324th in the nation) on a 32.3 percentage clip (203rd). Moreover, they are 324th in assists allowed per game (18.3).
The Rams have covered the spread in 13 straight games, dating back to the previous season. I will ride this ridiculous betting trend.
Over/Under Pick for Cal Poly vs. Colorado State
- Over 165.5 (5 units)
The Mustangs play at a furious pace. According to KenPom, Cal Poly registers 76.8 possessions per 40 minutes (3rd in the country). The Rams record 69.6 possessions per 40 minutes (313th), but they won’t mind joining the party.
As I mentioned, the Mustangs are a bad defensive team. They allow a lot of open shots, and the Rams could easily surpass a 90-point mark once more. I can only look at the over when it comes to the total in this game. Hopefully, the Mustangs will score enough to push the total over the line.
