Memphis Tigers vs. Utah State Aggies Pick and Prediction for Saturday, February 14, 2026

This is a rare non-conference game in February featuring this Memphis vs. Utah State prediction. Memphis (12-12, 13-11 ATS) could certainly use a win, whether it's in the conference or out of it. Utah State (21-3, 10-13 ATS) has won six straight and is sitting pretty in first place in the Mountain West, a half game up on San Diego State (12-2). The Aggies will host this non-conference game on Saturday at 8pmET. Check out more of Saturday's free College Basketball Predictions on Winners and Whiners.

Weird scheduling for the Tigers

Memphis is coming off a 76-69 road loss at North Texas on Thursday night. The loss dropped the Tigers to 7-5 in the AAC, tying them with UAB and Wichita State for fifth place. The Tigers led by five with a little over five minutes left in the game, but did not make a field goal in the final 5:12. Sincere Parker led Memphis with 20 points, while Julius Thedford added 12 points. Memphis shot just 43% from the field and 32% (6-of-19) from three-point range.

On the injury front, rotation guards Quante Berry (5.3ppg) and Hasan Abdul-Hakim (6.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg) are both questionable. Berry was injured against Charlotte (77-54) on Feb. 8 and did not play against North Texas due to a concussion. Dug McDaniel leads the Tigers with 12.9 points per game and 4.7 assists, while Parker adds 11.7 points on 45.8% shooting (37.7% 3pt).  KenPom has Memphis ranked 99th overall, just 208th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 35th in Adjusted Defensive rating. In total rebounding percentage, the Tigers rank 161st.

Aggies are rolling

This program just continues to win. Utah State has now won six straight games, including a 91-78 home win over Fresno State on Feb. 10. Jerrod Calhoun is 57-11 since he took over in 2024 for Danny Sprinkle, who spent just one season there, before moving to Washington. Ryan Odom also spent two seasons at Utah State, before moving to VCU and then Virginia. This has become a stepping-stone job, yet the biggest common denominator is that all these coaches who moved on did it because they won big.

M.J. Collins Jr. leads the Aggies with 18.3 points per game, while shooting 50.3% from the field and 39.2% from long range. He's a transfer from Vanderbilt, who started his career at Virginia Tech. Mason Falslev adds 16.1 points per game and 5.7 rebounds, while shooting 53.1% from the field and 39.5% from three-point range.

According to KenPom, Utah State ranks 25th overall, 27th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 38th in Adjusted Defense. The Aggies rank 56th in total rebound percentage. They're also in pretty good shape for the NCAA Tournament at 23rd in the latest Net Rankings and 3-1 against Quad 1 teams.

Spread Picks and Prediction for Memphis vs. Utah State

Memphis vs. Utah State Prediction and Odds

• Memphis +13.5 (4 units)

I don't love this scheduling for Memphis, but this is a game they could really use. This isn't just about motivation, but it's also about line value. Chalk is fine if it makes sense, but when you look at Utah State against the spread, they are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. At home, they've covered just one of their last six games. Memphis has a good defense to keep them in the game. They're holding teams to just 41% shooting and 29.4% from three-point range, which ranks 14th in the nation.

Over/Under Pick for Memphis vs. Utah

• Under 152.5 (4 units)

Even though both teams normally want to push the tempo, I assume that Memphis coach Anfernee Hardaway is going to slow it down at times because his team just played on Thursday, so they have very little rest. His team also struggles from the three-point line (31.7% on the road) and they're averaging just 72.7 points per game on the road. At home, Utah State is allowing just 68.1 points and is holding opponents to just 39.1% shooting from the field.