Mississippi State vs. Texas Pick and Prediction for Saturday, January 3, 2026

SEC play officially begins at the Moody Center as the Texas Longhorns host the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday at 6:00 PM ET.

Texas (9-4, 0-0 SEC) enters as a heavy 10.5-point favorite in their first conference opener under head coach Sean Miller. Mississippi State (8-5, 0-0 SEC) arrives on a four-game winning streak, looking to carry that momentum into a hostile Austin environment. The total is set at 156.5. Getting the best college basketball picks is easy with our free college basketball picks.

Bulldogs' high-scoring backcourt vs. Texas' size

Mississippi State has reinvented itself this season as a high-scoring, guard-oriented team. The Bulldogs average 79.9 PPG, a significant jump from previous seasons, and are led by superstar sophomore Josh Hubbard.

Hubbard is currently 3rd in the SEC in scoring at 21.3 PPG and is fresh off a 22-point masterpiece against Alabama State. He is paired with Jayden Epps (16.9 PPG), forming one of the most explosive scoring duos in the country. To stay competitive, the Bulldogs need their "bigs," specifically 6'11" Quincy Ballard, to avoid foul trouble against a massive Texas frontline. Ballard is coming off a season-high 15-rebound game but will face a much stiffer test on Saturday.

Texas’ historic offensive efficiency

Under Sean Miller, the Longhorns are playing their fastest and most efficient basketball in decades. Texas is averaging 87.9 PPG—their highest mark since 1995—and shooting nearly 50% from the floor as a team.

The focal point of the attack is 7-foot freshman Matas Vokietaitis, who has been a revelation in the paint. Vokietaitis leads the team with 15.8 PPG and 6.8 RPG while shooting an incredible 66.3% from the field. Texas also features graduate guard Tramon Mark, who has averaged 16.7 PPG over his last three games. The Longhorns' ability to dominate the offensive glass (4th in the SEC) and transition into quick-strike offense makes them a nightmare for defenses that struggle with discipline.

Spread pick for Mississippi State vs. Texas

• Mississippi State +10.5 (-115)

While Texas has the clear advantage in size and overall efficiency, a double-digit spread is a lot for a conference opener. Josh Hubbard is a "game-changer" who can keep the Bulldogs close single-handedly if he catches fire from deep. Mississippi State has covered in four of their last five games, and their backcourt speed should allow them to match Texas basket-for-basket for long stretches. Expect Texas to win, but for the Bulldogs to keep it within the number.

Total pick for Mississippi State vs. Texas

• Over 156.5 (-108)

Both teams are trending heavily toward the high side. Texas has hit the Over in seven of their ten home games this season, and Mississippi State's new pace-and-space offense has seen them clear 80 points regularly during their four-game win streak. Given Texas' scoring average of 87.9 and the Hubbard/Vokietaitis star power on both sides, this game is set up to be a high-flying track meet that clears 160.