Penn State Nittany Lions vs Oregon Ducks Picks and Prediction for Saturday, February 14, 2026

Penn State Nittany Lions (11-14, 2-12 Big Ten) face the Oregon Ducks (8-16, 1-12 Big Ten) on February 14 at 3:00 PM ET on BTN. Penn State last defeated Washington 63-60, while Oregon fell 92-74 at Indiana. Both teams sit near the bottom of the Big Ten standings, and this matchup gives one side a chance to gain ground in conference play after difficult recent stretches. Make sure to read this in-depth Penn State Nittany Lions are Oregon Ducks prediction. Elevate your game with our expert NCAAB picks for Penn State Nittany Lions vs Oregon Ducks picks prediction and win big!

Guard Play Keeping Games Within Reach

Penn State Nittany Lions snapped a slide with a 63-60 win at Washington, holding Washington to 60 points after allowing 110 in a loss at Michigan two games earlier. Penn State is scoring 75.6 points per game but giving up 78.8, which has defined the 11-14 record. In the win over Washington, Penn State controlled the tempo and avoided a high-scoring track meet. That result followed a 77-75 loss to USC and a 77-75 win over Minnesota, showing how narrow the margin has been in recent games.

Freddie Dilione V leads Penn State at 14.6 points per game on 47.5 percent shooting and 83.1 percent from the free-throw line. Kayden Mingo adds 13.4 points and 4.3 assists while averaging 2.2 steals, giving Penn State activity at the guard spot. Penn State shoots 47 percent from the field as a team and averages 12.8 assists. Rebounding remains a concern at 29.9 per game, especially against a bigger Oregon front line. When Penn State keeps turnovers down and stays out of shootouts, games stay within reach. When defense slips, as it did in the 110-69 loss at Michigan, the scoreboard gets out of control quickly.

Injuries: Reggie Grodin (OUT), TIbor Mirtic (OUT)

Oregon Looking to Break the Slide

Oregon Ducks enter at 8-16 overall and 1-12 in Big Ten play after a 92-74 loss at Indiana. Oregon has now lost five straight games, including a 68-64 loss at Purdue and an 84-66 defeat against Iowa. In the loss to Indiana, Oregon allowed 92 points, continuing a trend of defensive issues. Oregon gives up 75.0 points per game while scoring 71.8, and that negative gap shows up in close losses that slip away late.

Kwame Evans Jr. leads Oregon with 12.8 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game. Evans impacts every column, but Oregon needs consistent secondary scoring. Nate Bittle averages 16.6 points and 6.7 rebounds, and Jackson Shelstad adds 15.6 points with 4.9 assists, though Shelstad shoots 39.1 percent from the field. Oregon shoots 42 percent as a team and averages 35.1 rebounds, a clear edge over Penn State on the glass. Oregon also blocks 3.9 shots per game, which can disrupt Penn State’s interior attempts. The problem has been offensive consistency and limiting opponent runs, especially in games like the 92-74 loss, where defensive resistance faded.

Injuries: Ege Demir (OUT), Devin Pryor (OUT), Jackson Shelstad (OUT)

Penn State Nittany Lions vs Oregon Ducks Picks Pick

Spread Pick for Penn State Nittany Lions vs Oregon Ducks Picks

• Oregon Ducks (5 units)

Oregon holds the edge in rebounding at 35.1 per game compared to 29.9 for Penn State, and that gap matters over 40 minutes. Oregon also blocks 3.9 shots per game, which can challenge a Penn State team that relies on efficient shooting at 47 percent from the field. Penn State allows 78.8 points per game, and that defensive number leaves little room for error on the road. Penn State showed defensive improvement in the 63-60 win over Washington, but Oregon has multiple scorers in double figures, including Nate Bittle at 16.6 and Jackson Shelstad at 15.6. If Oregon controls the glass and keeps Penn State from turning this into a guard-driven half-court game, the Ducks have the statistical edge at home.

Over/Under Pick for Penn State Nittany Lions vs Oregon Ducks Picks

• Under  (4 units)

Penn State just played a 63-60 game against Washington and a pair of 77-75 contests against USC and Minnesota. Oregon has scored 74, 64, 66, 57, and 57 in the last five games. Oregon averages 71.8 points per game and shoots 42 percent from the field, while Penn State allows 78.8 but has shown it can grind games down when necessary. With both teams struggling in conference play and recent results showing scoring dips, this matchup sets up as a game played in the low to mid 70s. Unless both teams suddenly find consistent perimeter shooting, the recent scoring trends point toward a lower total.