St. Bonaventure vs. North Carolina, Picks and Prediction, Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025

We have the Fort Myers Tip-off-Beach Division on Tuesday in this St. Bonaventure vs. North Carolina prediction. The No. 16 Tar Heels are 5-0 this season, but so are the Bonnies (5-0), who have played all five games at home in Buffalo. This is also UNC's first game away from Chapel Hill. These teams will meet from the Suncoast Credit Union Arena at 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday, broadcast on FS1. North Carolina is a 10-point favorite and the total is 153. Check out this game and more free college basketball picks along with football, NBA, and NHL predictions on Winners and Whiners.

Quick Picks and Prediction on St. Bonaventure vs. North Carolina

If you're in a rush, we have the picks, the score and total down below.

• North Carolina 82-St. Bonaventure 76
• Pick: St. Bonaventure +10
• Total: Over 153

St. Bonaventure vs. UNC Odds and Line Movement

The opening odds and line movement for the total and spread are below for North Carolina vs. St. Bonaventure.

Opening Odds for St. Bonaventure vs. North Carolina

• North Carolina -11.5
• Total: 153

St. Bonaventure vs. North Carolina Line Movement

• The spread moved from UNC -11.5 to -10.5
• The total went from 153 and moved to o152.5-115/u152.5 (-105).

Key Matchups for UNC vs. St. Bonaventure

Tough test for the Bonnies

When you think of St. Bonaventure, two names come to mind: Bob Lanier and their GM, Adrian Wojnarowski. But "Woj", who retired from his reporting duties at ESPN, joined longtime coach Mark Schmidt. The Bonnies lost some key performers to the portal, so they brought in Frank Mitchell (Minnesota), Amar'e Marshall (Albany), Darryl Simmons Jr. (Gardner-Webb) and Daniel Egbuniwe (Tennessee Tech). In St. Bonaventure's last game, they were victorious over Robert Morris, 75-61, covering the 11.5. The Bonnies were led by Mitchell, who had 19 points and 16 rebounds. Simons added 16 points on 5-of-11 shooting.

Guard Cayden Charles is a 6-3 D2 transfer from North Georgia, who has been a pleasant surprise with 14.4 points and 6.8 rebounds on 48.9% shooting. Mitchel is a 6-8, 270-pound wide body, who averages 16 points and 10.6 rebounds on 56.9% shooting. Simmons leads the team with 18.6 points and is second with 3.0 assists on 40.6% shooting from three-point range.

KenPom has St. Bonny's at 116th overall, 106th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 139th in Adjusted Defense.

Tar Heels need to replace Trimble

The good news is that North Carolina is 5-0. The bad news is that point guard Seth Trimble is out with a broken arm indefinitely while working out. He's expected to miss 5-7 weeks and should be available during early conference pay. UNC didn't need Trimble against North Carolina Central (97-53), Radford (89-74), and Navy (73-61).  With Trimble out, they've needed Kyan Evans (6-2, 175) to step up. The Colorado State transfer is averaging 8.0 points per game and 5.2 assists, but is shooting just 41.2% from the field (32% 3pt).

Wing Luke Bogavac (6-6, 215) has seen his minutes increase since the Trimble injury. He's averaged 16 points per game over his last three. But the Tar Heels have a chance to be special and that's because they have a potential top-five pick in Caleb Wilson (6-10, 215), who is averaging 20.6 points, two steals and 10 rebounds, while shooting 66.1% from the field.

UNC is ranked 28th by KenPom, 37th in Adjusted Offense and 22nd in Adjusted Defense.

Key Injury Report and Analysis for St. Bonaventure vs. North Carolina:

St. Bonny's

• No key injuries listed

UNC:

• G Seth Trimble (left forearm) is out indefinitely. Averaged 11.0 points last season with 5.2 rebounds. In three games, he averaged 14.5 points per game and 3.5 assists.

Betting Trends for St. Bonaventure vs. North Carolina

UNC:

• 3-0 Under last 3 games and 4-1 Under last 5.
• 12-4 ATS last 16 games.
• 8-3 Under last 11 games

St. Bonaventure:

• Is 1-3 ATS last 4 games and 2-5 ATS last 7.
• Has gone over in 3 of their last 4 games.

St. Bonaventure vs. North Carolina ATS and Over/Under Betting Picks

We have the pick and total below and the analysis of both in this tournament and non-conference matchup.

UNC vs. St. Bonaventure Spread

• St. Bonaventure (+10.5) (4 units)

Total for North Carolina vs. St. Bonavntuer.

• Over 152.5 (4 units)

St. Bonaventure vs. North Carolina Final Score Prediction

• North Carolina 82-St. Bonaventure 76

The Tar Heels will miss Trimble in this game. They've played against three straight mid-majors who are not as good as the Bonnies and covered just one of the games. This is basically a Super Bowl game for St. Bonaventure. It's David vs. Goliath and the Bonnies have enough size to compete in this game. They are also solid defensively, allowing 32.7% from long range. On offense, they are more than solid, shooting 48.5% from the field and 37.5% from long range. UNC is 54th in Adjusted Tempo and while the Bonnies want to slow it down, this is a neutral site so they may not be able to dictate tempo. They should score on the Heels with some ease if it's wide open.