Duquesne vs Air Force Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 5, 2026

The Duquesne Dukes visit the Air Force Falcons at Falcon Stadium, with the opening kickoff at 1:00 PM ET, televised on MW+. Duquesne finished last season with consecutive wins over Central Connecticut State and Robert Morris after losing two of its previous three games. Air Force finished 4-8 in 2025, closing with a 42-21 victory over Colorado State after losing three of its previous four. Air Force opened as a 28.5-point favorite and has moved to -30.5 at -108, while Duquesne is +30.5 at -112. The total remains 58.5, with Air Force -100000 and Duquesne +5000 on the moneyline. The sizable spread creates the main betting question in our free NCAAF picks.

Duquesne Dukes Face a Major Step Up

Duquesne won three of its final five games last season, beating Mercyhurst 37-0, Central Connecticut State 38-33 and Robert Morris 20-17. The Dukes also suffered road losses to Wagner and LIU during that stretch. Duquesne scored 20 points or fewer in three of those five contests, which could become an issue against an Air Force offense built to hold the ball for long stretches. The Dukes will need to make the most of limited possessions at Falcon Stadium.

The biggest challenge is preparing for an Air Force rushing system that finished third nationally last season. Duquesne cannot afford repeated short possessions that quickly put its defense back on the field. The Dukes will also need early-down stops to create obvious passing situations. Air Force threw more than ten passes in all eight of its losses last season and ten or fewer in each victory. For Duquesne, forcing the Falcons away from their normal rushing approach would significantly improve the chances of staying within the large point spread.

Air Force Falcons Rely on Proven Rushing Attack

Air Force struggled to a 4-8 record last season, but its offense remained productive on the ground. The Falcons ranked third nationally in rushing and fourth in time of possession, running for more than 200 yards against every opponent except Army and New Mexico. Air Force also finished first nationally in yards per completion. The Falcons ended 2025 positively with a 42-21 road victory over Colorado State, their highest scoring output across the final five games.

Quarterback Liam Szarka returns after leading Air Force with 922 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. Fullback Owen Allen also returns after rushing for 750 yards and nearly six yards per attempt. The larger concern is a defense that allowed opponents to convert 50.36% of their third downs last season. Air Force also allowed close to a 70% completion rate and more than 300 passing yards six times. Linebacker Blake Fletcher and safety Roger Jones provide experienced pieces for a group that needs better results.

Key to the Game: Liam Szarka Against Duquesne

Szarka is the player who can dictate how this game develops. The Air Force quarterback rushed for 922 yards and 13 touchdowns last season, operating an attack that ranked third nationally on the ground. Air Force was 4-0 when throwing ten passes or fewer, showing how important its rushing success was to winning games. Duquesne needs to keep Szarka from consistently creating favorable down-and-distance situations. If the Dukes cannot contain him early, Air Force can repeatedly use Szarka, Allen and its other rushing options to extend drives and limit Duquesne’s possessions.

Duquesne vs Air Force Game Pick

• Air Force -30.5 (-108)

Air Force has a large number to cover, but its rushing attack creates a difficult matchup for Duquesne. The Falcons ranked third nationally on the ground last season, with Liam Szarka rushing for 922 yards and 13 touchdowns. Owen Allen added 750 yards, giving Air Force another proven option. Duquesne scored 20 points or fewer in three of its final five games last season and now faces a major jump in competition. At Falcon Stadium, the pick is Air Force -30.5 against Duquesne on Saturday afternoon.

Duquesne vs Air Force Over/Under Pick

• Under 58.5 (-115)

Air Force’s rushing style can drain long stretches from the clock, which makes 58.5 a demanding total. The Falcons ranked fourth nationally in time of possession last season and are at their best when the passing volume stays low. Duquesne scored 20 points or fewer in three of its final five games, including 11 against LIU and 13 against Wagner. Air Force should score consistently, but Duquesne may have limited possessions. The play is under 58.5 at Falcon Stadium on Saturday afternoon.