Southeast Missouri State vs Iowa State Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 5, 2026

The Southeast Missouri State Redhawks visit the Iowa State Cyclones at Jack Trice Stadium, with the opening kickoff at 1:00 PM ET, televised on ESPN+. Southeast Missouri State is 1-0 after beating Indiana State 23-21 on the road in its opener. Iowa State begins its Big 12 schedule after finishing 8-4 in 2025 and winning its final three games, including a 20-13 victory at Oklahoma State. The Cyclones are 29.5-point favorites at -108, with Southeast Missouri State +29.5 at -112. The total has dropped from 54.5 to 53.5, while Iowa State is -20000 and the Redhawks +3500 on the moneyline. Build your bankroll with our free NCAAF picks.

Southeast Missouri State Redhawks Win Their Opener

Southeast Missouri State opened 2026 with a 23-21 victory at Indiana State, scoring the deciding points on Justin Keller’s 45-yard field goal with 7:04 remaining. The Redhawks finished with 327 total yards and did not commit a turnover. Quarterback Braylen Ragland completed 26 of 36 passes for 274 yards and one touchdown. John Anthony Jr. caught six passes for 88 yards and a score, while Jobe Bryant added four receptions for 60 yards.

The Redhawks had far less success running the football, finishing with only 53 yards on 30 attempts. Khyair Spain accounted for 66 yards and a touchdown, but the rest of the rushing totals moved backward. Southeast Missouri State’s defense recorded four sacks and 11 tackles for loss while holding Indiana State to 58 rushing yards. DJ Delmore had 13 tackles, one sack and three tackles for loss. That defensive front now faces a much larger challenge against Big 12 personnel in Ames.

Iowa State Cyclones Begin a New Era

Iowa State finished 8-4 last season and closed with three consecutive victories over TCU, Kansas and Oklahoma State. The program now starts over under Jimmy Rogers after Matt Campbell left for Penn State and several important Cyclones followed him. Quarterback Rocco Becht was among those departures. Iowa State addressed the position by adding Jaylen Raynor from Arkansas State, where he threw for more than 8,600 yards and 52 touchdowns while rushing for nearly 1,200 yards and 15 scores.

Raynor will operate with a heavily changed supporting cast. Receivers Cody Jackson, Omari Hayes and Evan Boyd were added through the transfer portal, while the offensive line also features several newcomers. Iowa State’s defense has undergone similar changes. New coordinator Jesse Bobbit adds Washington State edge rusher Isaac Terrell, who recorded seven sacks and 12 tackles for loss last season. The Cyclones also added linebackers Montreze Smith and Sullivan Schlimgen as they rebuild a defense that lost several major contributors.

Key to the Game: Jaylen Raynor Against Southeast Missouri State’s Defense

Raynor’s experience makes him the central matchup in Iowa State’s opener. The senior has produced more than 9,800 combined passing and rushing yards during his Arkansas State career and provides the Cyclones with a proven dual-threat quarterback while much of the roster changes around him. Southeast Missouri State generated four sacks against Indiana State, led by Timothy Maxson and LJ Minner Jr., so Iowa State’s rebuilt offensive line faces an early challenge. If Raynor handles that pressure and avoids the interception problems from previous seasons, Iowa State should consistently reach scoring range.

Southeast Missouri State vs Iowa State Game Pick

• Iowa State -29.5 (-108)

Iowa State has undergone major roster changes, but Jaylen Raynor provides valuable experience at quarterback against an FCS opponent. Southeast Missouri State managed only 53 rushing yards against Indiana State and won by two points despite recording four sacks. The Cyclones have upgraded several positions through the portal and still finished last season with three consecutive victories. Raynor’s ability to create yards through the air and on the ground should produce separation. At Jack Trice Stadium, the pick is Iowa State -29.5 against Southeast Missouri State on Saturday.

Southeast Missouri State vs Iowa State Over/Under Pick

• Under 53.5 (-115)

The total has already dropped from 54.5 to 53.5, and Southeast Missouri State’s opening performance supports another lower-scoring result. The Redhawks scored 23 points against Indiana State while rushing for only 53 yards, and three of their scores came from Justin Keller field goals. Iowa State has a new quarterback, coaching staff and several new starters across the offense, which could produce a measured opening game. The Cyclones should score enough to win comfortably, but the play is under 53.5 on Saturday afternoon in Ames.