2026 MLB Team Betting Trends: Run Line, Moneyline, and Totals Rankings

By: Al MacMillan Updated 08/25/2026, 04:21 PM ET
Fact Checked by Devin Erickson-Sheehy

The 2026 MLB season has produced clear separation in the betting market, and the team-by-team numbers tell the story. The Tampa Bay Rays have been the most profitable club to back on the run line, while the Philadelphia Phillies and Athletics have been steady money-losers no matter the side. Below are the full 30-team rankings for every major market, sorted by return on investment, to guide your MLB predictions and wagers.

Records reflect flat 1-unit stakes at the closing line through August 25, 2026. A positive ROI means blindly backing that side all season would have shown a profit.

The run line applies a 1.5-run spread to every game. Tampa Bay leads the league at 71-58, with Atlanta and Milwaukee close behind. On the other end, Philadelphia has been baseball's worst run-line team by a wide margin.

RankTeamATS RecordUnitsROI
1Tampa Bay Rays71-58+21.55u+13.8%
2Atlanta Braves68-62+14.65u+9.8%
3Milwaukee Brewers68-63+14.45u+9.6%
4San Diego Padres72-57+11.55u+6.6%
5Washington Nationals76-55+8.90u+4.9%
6New York Yankees64-65+6.40u+4.3%
7Chicago White Sox75-53+7.60u+4.1%
8Boston Red Sox64-63+3.30u+2.0%
9Chicago Cubs64-66+2.10u+1.4%
10Arizona Diamondbacks70-58+1.00u+0.6%
11Baltimore Orioles68-62+0.95u+0.6%
12St. Louis Cardinals71-58-2.10u-1.1%
13Minnesota Twins71-60-5.10u-2.7%
14Miami Marlins67-63-5.20u-3.0%
15Toronto Blue Jays66-65-6.05u-3.5%
16Colorado Rockies68-63-6.70u-4.1%
17Houston Astros64-67-7.35u-4.3%
18Pittsburgh Pirates63-66-8.95u-5.3%
19Cleveland Guardians63-68-9.65u-5.7%
20Detroit Tigers59-67-10.05u-6.1%
21Cincinnati Reds67-63-13.25u-7.2%
22Kansas City Royals63-64-16.40u-9.1%
23New York Mets58-71-15.10u-9.3%
24San Francisco Giants63-66-18.85u-10.5%
25Texas Rangers58-71-18.90u-11.2%
26Los Angeles Angels65-66-20.90u-11.5%
27Athletics61-71-25.80u-14.6%
28Los Angeles Dodgers55-75-25.25u-16.4%
29Seattle Mariners50-81-27.80u-18.2%
30Philadelphia Phillies53-78-30.75u-19.9%

Moneyline ROI rewards teams the market has underrated, not just the ones that win most. The Tampa Bay Rays top the board at 78-53, a rare case of an elite team that still pays its backers, with the Chicago White Sox second and Milwaukee third. The Athletics have been the single biggest moneyline drain in the sport.

RankTeamRecordUnitsROI
1Tampa Bay Rays78-53+14.60u+8.7%
2Chicago White Sox68-63+11.75u+8.3%
3Milwaukee Brewers81-50+12.75u+6.7%
4Arizona Diamondbacks69-63+7.10u+4.6%
5St. Louis Cardinals66-66+5.80u+4.0%
6San Diego Padres71-61+5.85u+3.7%
7Atlanta Braves76-55+5.70u+3.2%
8Chicago Cubs76-56+4.75u+2.7%
9Miami Marlins67-65+2.60u+1.7%
10Washington Nationals62-71+1.65u+1.2%
11Boston Red Sox72-59-1.50u-0.9%
12Minnesota Twins64-68-2.25u-1.5%
13Philadelphia Phillies73-59-3.75u-1.9%
14New York Yankees74-56-5.75u-3.0%
15Cleveland Guardians66-66-6.85u-4.2%
16Cincinnati Reds62-70-7.85u-5.3%
17Texas Rangers66-66-8.55u-5.4%
18Colorado Rockies50-81-7.70u-5.8%
19Los Angeles Dodgers80-51-15.15u-6.0%
20Baltimore Orioles63-68-9.65u-6.3%
21Toronto Blue Jays64-68-11.10u-6.9%
22Houston Astros65-66-11.20u-7.1%
23Pittsburgh Pirates64-69-15.10u-9.2%
24Kansas City Royals58-74-16.10u-10.9%
25Seattle Mariners63-69-22.10u-12.7%
26Detroit Tigers61-70-20.95u-12.8%
27Los Angeles Angels52-80-19.20u-13.7%
28San Francisco Giants53-78-21.75u-15.0%
29New York Mets59-72-27.40u-17.0%
30Athletics51-81-27.40u-18.8%

Totals splits cut both ways, so we rank the Over and the Under separately. The Chicago White Sox and Minnesota have been the league's premier Over teams, while the Los Angeles Angels and the New York Yankees anchor the Under side.

Best Over Teams

RankTeamOver Record (O-U)ROI
1Chicago White Sox74-55+9.6%
2Minnesota Twins70-53+7.5%
3Pittsburgh Pirates72-57+6.6%
4Chicago Cubs71-59+4.7%
5Houston Astros68-56+3.8%
6Seattle Mariners68-57+3.8%
7Washington Nationals68-58+3.4%
8Cincinnati Reds69-61+1.2%
9Texas Rangers64-61-1.8%
10Athletics65-62-1.9%
11Toronto Blue Jays66-63-2.1%
12Baltimore Orioles65-62-2.2%
13San Francisco Giants59-60-4.9%
14Miami Marlins63-65-6.1%
15Colorado Rockies63-65-6.2%
16Philadelphia Phillies61-64-6.3%
17New York Mets58-63-8.4%
18Boston Red Sox61-66-8.6%
19Atlanta Braves59-66-9.4%
20Tampa Bay Rays59-67-9.8%
21Kansas City Royals60-68-10.1%
22Los Angeles Dodgers61-69-10.5%
23Cleveland Guardians61-70-10.5%
24Detroit Tigers57-68-12.2%
25San Diego Padres58-70-13.0%
26Arizona Diamondbacks57-69-13.1%
27St. Louis Cardinals56-70-14.7%
28Milwaukee Brewers56-72-15.8%
29New York Yankees54-72-17.9%
30Los Angeles Angels53-76-20.7%

Best Under Teams

RankTeamUnder Record (O-U)ROI
1Los Angeles Angels53-76+12.6%
2New York Yankees54-72+9.1%
3Milwaukee Brewers56-72+7.3%
4St. Louis Cardinals56-70+5.7%
5Arizona Diamondbacks57-69+4.7%
6San Diego Padres58-70+4.6%
7Detroit Tigers57-68+4.0%
8Kansas City Royals60-68+1.9%
9Atlanta Braves59-66+1.5%
10Cleveland Guardians61-70+1.5%
11Los Angeles Dodgers61-69+1.5%
12Tampa Bay Rays59-67+1.3%
13New York Mets58-63-0.7%
14Boston Red Sox61-66-0.9%
15Philadelphia Phillies61-64-1.8%
16Colorado Rockies63-65-2.4%
17Miami Marlins63-65-2.8%
18San Francisco Giants59-60-3.3%
19Texas Rangers64-61-5.8%
20Baltimore Orioles65-62-6.1%
21Athletics65-62-6.2%
22Toronto Blue Jays66-63-6.3%
23Cincinnati Reds69-61-10.0%
24Washington Nationals68-58-11.3%
25Seattle Mariners68-57-12.0%
26Chicago Cubs71-59-12.8%
27Houston Astros68-56-13.1%
28Pittsburgh Pirates72-57-15.0%
29Minnesota Twins70-53-16.6%
30Chicago White Sox74-55-18.6%

Team totals isolate one club's run production rather than the combined score. The Chicago Cubs and Minnesota have cleared their team numbers more than any other lineups, while the Angels and Mets have been the most dependable team-total Under sides.

Best Team-Total Over Teams

RankTeamOver Record (O-U)ROI
1Chicago Cubs75-57+5.8%
2Minnesota Twins74-58+5.2%
3Arizona Diamondbacks73-59+3.8%
4Washington Nationals72-61+2.1%
5Chicago White Sox71-60+1.8%
6Milwaukee Brewers70-61+1.6%
7Boston Red Sox69-62-0.8%
8Atlanta Braves69-62-0.8%
9Pittsburgh Pirates70-63-1.2%
10Baltimore Orioles68-63-2.1%
11St. Louis Cardinals68-64-2.5%
12Tampa Bay Rays68-63-2.9%
13Detroit Tigers67-64-3.2%
14Colorado Rockies68-63-3.6%
15Cleveland Guardians67-65-5.5%
16San Diego Padres65-67-6.9%
17Houston Astros63-68-8.1%
18Philadelphia Phillies64-68-8.2%
19Miami Marlins61-71-11.8%
20Texas Rangers62-70-12.6%
21Toronto Blue Jays59-73-15.8%
22Kansas City Royals59-73-16.2%
23Athletics59-73-17.0%
24Seattle Mariners58-74-17.7%
25New York Yankees56-74-18.0%
26San Francisco Giants57-74-18.6%
27Cincinnati Reds57-75-19.8%
28Los Angeles Dodgers53-78-23.8%
29New York Mets54-77-24.9%
30Los Angeles Angels52-80-26.0%

Best Team-Total Under Teams

RankTeamUnder Record (O-U)ROI
1Los Angeles Angels52-80+14.0%
2New York Mets54-77+12.4%
3Los Angeles Dodgers53-78+12.1%
4San Francisco Giants57-74+7.5%
5Cincinnati Reds57-75+7.2%
6Seattle Mariners58-74+6.7%
7New York Yankees56-74+6.0%
8Kansas City Royals59-73+4.5%
9Toronto Blue Jays59-73+4.4%
10Athletics59-73+3.0%
11Miami Marlins61-71+1.9%
12Texas Rangers62-70+0.3%
13Philadelphia Phillies64-68-2.9%
14Houston Astros63-68-3.7%
15San Diego Padres65-67-5.8%
16Cleveland Guardians67-65-7.1%
17Detroit Tigers67-64-8.5%
18Colorado Rockies68-63-8.9%
19St. Louis Cardinals68-64-9.0%
20Baltimore Orioles68-63-9.9%
21Tampa Bay Rays68-63-10.0%
22Boston Red Sox69-62-10.9%
23Atlanta Braves69-62-11.1%
24Pittsburgh Pirates70-63-11.9%
25Milwaukee Brewers70-61-12.3%
26Chicago White Sox71-60-13.2%
27Washington Nationals72-61-13.9%
28Arizona Diamondbacks73-59-15.3%
29Minnesota Twins74-58-17.2%
30Chicago Cubs75-57-19.5%

First-5 markets settle after five innings, isolating the starting pitchers and removing bullpen and late-inning noise. Washington has been the standout at 82-51, with St. Louis and Tampa Bay close behind.

RankTeamATS RecordUnitsROI
1Washington Nationals82-51+25.10u+16.0%
2St. Louis Cardinals79-53+15.55u+9.6%
3Tampa Bay Rays75-56+11.80u+7.6%
4Atlanta Braves72-59+7.35u+4.8%
5Los Angeles Angels73-59+4.40u+2.8%
6Detroit Tigers70-60+2.40u+1.5%
7Milwaukee Brewers68-62+0.50u+0.3%
8Cleveland Guardians69-63-0.40u-0.3%
9Chicago White Sox69-62-2.15u-1.4%
10Pittsburgh Pirates70-63-2.80u-1.8%
11Minnesota Twins69-63-3.50u-2.2%
12San Diego Padres69-63-5.25u-3.3%
13Miami Marlins68-64-7.45u-4.7%
14Cincinnati Reds68-64-8.05u-5.0%
15San Francisco Giants65-66-14.05u-8.8%
16Los Angeles Dodgers64-67-14.25u-9.1%
17Kansas City Royals64-68-15.00u-9.4%
18Arizona Diamondbacks63-68-15.20u-9.7%
19Boston Red Sox62-69-15.40u-10.1%
20Colorado Rockies61-69-15.60u-10.4%
21Philadelphia Phillies62-70-16.90u-10.9%
22Baltimore Orioles61-70-18.85u-12.2%
23Athletics61-71-19.70u-12.8%
24New York Yankees60-70-19.55u-12.8%
25Toronto Blue Jays60-72-23.90u-15.2%
26Chicago Cubs59-73-24.70u-15.9%
27New York Mets58-73-25.35u-16.2%
28Texas Rangers58-74-26.70u-17.1%
29Seattle Mariners57-75-27.05u-17.8%
30Houston Astros56-75-30.40u-19.4%

The first-5 total tracks only the runs scored through five innings. Minnesota, Houston, and the Chicago Cubs lead the Over side, while Toronto and San Diego flip to strong Under numbers.

Best First-5 Over Teams

RankTeamOver Record (O-U)ROI
1Minnesota Twins74-52+9.2%
2Houston Astros71-52+7.2%
3Chicago Cubs73-57+5.2%
4Texas Rangers72-56+5.2%
5Washington Nationals71-56+4.3%
6Los Angeles Angels70-58+2.5%
7Chicago White Sox68-57+1.4%
8Colorado Rockies66-58-0.7%
9Atlanta Braves67-59-0.9%
10Pittsburgh Pirates68-61-1.2%
11Milwaukee Brewers66-59-1.5%
12Detroit Tigers64-60-2.8%
13Arizona Diamondbacks65-60-3.0%
14Philadelphia Phillies66-62-3.2%
15Boston Red Sox64-61-3.9%
16New York Mets66-63-4.4%
17Baltimore Orioles60-60-6.3%
18San Francisco Giants63-63-6.4%
19Athletics62-65-7.2%
20Miami Marlins62-66-8.8%
21Los Angeles Dodgers62-66-9.3%
22Tampa Bay Rays59-66-10.9%
23Kansas City Royals61-69-11.2%
24Cincinnati Reds60-68-11.8%
25Seattle Mariners58-66-12.2%
26Cleveland Guardians54-68-16.1%
27New York Yankees54-71-18.5%
28St. Louis Cardinals52-73-21.6%
29San Diego Padres53-74-21.9%
30Toronto Blue Jays49-78-27.1%

Best First-5 Under Teams

RankTeamUnder Record (O-U)ROI
1Toronto Blue Jays49-78+15.1%
2San Diego Padres53-74+8.9%
3St. Louis Cardinals52-73+8.9%
4New York Yankees54-71+5.6%
5Cleveland Guardians54-68+4.4%
6Seattle Mariners58-66+0.3%
7Kansas City Royals61-69+0.2%
8Cincinnati Reds60-68-0.6%
9Tampa Bay Rays59-66-1.0%
10Los Angeles Dodgers62-66-2.8%
11Miami Marlins62-66-3.6%
12Athletics62-65-3.8%
13San Francisco Giants63-63-5.0%
14Baltimore Orioles60-60-5.0%
15New York Mets66-63-8.5%
16Boston Red Sox64-61-8.6%
17Arizona Diamondbacks65-60-8.8%
18Detroit Tigers64-60-9.5%
19Philadelphia Phillies66-62-9.9%
20Milwaukee Brewers66-59-10.8%
21Colorado Rockies66-58-11.2%
22Atlanta Braves67-59-11.5%
23Pittsburgh Pirates68-61-11.6%
24Chicago White Sox68-57-13.1%
25Los Angeles Angels70-58-13.9%
26Washington Nationals71-56-16.6%
27Texas Rangers72-56-17.9%
28Chicago Cubs73-57-18.4%
29Houston Astros71-52-18.7%
30Minnesota Twins74-52-21.4%

Methodology

Every market treats each qualifying game as a flat 1-unit wager settled at the closing line. A win is a cover, a straight-up win, or an Over or Under, depending on the market. Units is the cumulative profit or loss; ROI is units divided by total bets, shown as a percentage. Home and away splits apply the same method to that subset of games. Flat staking keeps all 30 teams on equal footing so a handful of heavy favorites or longshots cannot distort the rankings.

For more MLB predictions and daily wagers, visit MLB Predictions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which MLB team has the best run line trend in 2026?

The Tampa Bay Rays lead the league against the run line at 71-58, returning 13.8 percent on flat 1-unit stakes. The Atlanta Braves are second at 68-62 (plus 9.8 percent), with Milwaukee third, making all three reliable cover teams this season.

Which teams should bettors fade right now?

The Philadelphia Phillies are the worst run-line team in baseball at 53-78 (minus 19.9 percent), and the Athletics have been the biggest moneyline drain at 51-81 (minus 18.8 percent). The Athletics are negative across the run line and moneyline, so there is no split that rescues them.

What is the difference between the run line and the moneyline?

The moneyline is a straight-up bet on who wins. The run line applies a 1.5-run spread — the favorite must win by two or more, or the underdog must lose by one or win outright. Because so many MLB games are decided by a single run, run-line results often diverge sharply from moneyline records.

Which teams are the strongest Over plays?

The Chicago White Sox top the full-game Over board at 74-55 (plus 9.6 percent), with the Minnesota Twins and Pittsburgh Pirates close behind. The Chicago Cubs and Minnesota lead the team-total Overs, so those lineups have cleared the number from a different angle.

Which teams are the best Under plays?

The Los Angeles Angels lead full-game Unders at 53-76 (plus 12.6 percent), with the New York Yankees and Milwaukee close behind. On team totals, the Los Angeles Angels are the strongest Under side at plus 14.0 percent, followed by the New York Mets.

Yes. The first-5 markets isolate the starting pitchers and remove bullpen and late-inning scoring. Washington leads the F5 run line at 82-51, while Toronto and San Diego flip to strong F5 Under sides even though their full-game numbers look different.

These tables reflect the 2026 season through August 25 and are refreshed as new results come in. Records and ROI move daily during the season, so check back before locking in wagers.

How is ROI calculated?

Every wager is treated as a flat 1-unit stake at the closing line. Units is the running profit or loss across all of a team's games; ROI is that unit total divided by the number of bets, expressed as a percentage. A positive ROI means backing that side blindly all season would have turned a profit.

Season-long ROI tables are a starting point, not a finished play. A team covering the run line at a strong clip tells you the market has been slow to adjust to how it wins games — but the matchup, the starting pitcher, and the closing number still decide each night. We treat these rankings as a filter: they surface which sides the market has mispriced across a full season, and from there the daily wagers come down to the specific game in front of us.

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