Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday October 23 2026

Indiana begins its home schedule against Dallas after edging New Orleans 123-120 behind Pascal Siakam and a healthy-looking Tyrese Haliburton. Dallas is coming off a 128-110 defeat at Houston and remains thin in the frontcourt. The Pacers are favored by several possessions; the matchup turns on whether their passing game can repeatedly find advantages around the rim.

Best Available Odds for Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers

• DraftKings moneyline: Dallas Mavericks +190 | Indiana Pacers -230
• DraftKings spread: Dallas Mavericks +6.5 | Indiana Pacers -6.5
• DraftKings total: 237.5 points

Game Info

• Friday, October 23, 2026 | 7:00 p.m. ET | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis

Expected Starting Lineups

Dallas Mavericks are projected to start Kyrie Irving, Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford. Indiana Pacers are expected to open with Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Kelly Oubre Jr., Pascal Siakam and Ivica Zubac. These are expected combinations rather than announced starting fives.

Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers Matchup Preview

Dallas Mavericks: Offensive Matchup

Dallas conceded 128 in Houston while struggling to match the Rockets' interior scoring and physicality. Cooper Flagg and the Mavericks' other creators need to protect the ball against an Indiana team that turns defensive stops into quick scoring chances. The first road game also tests how Dallas balances aggression with its available big-man depth.

Dereck Lively II and Santi Aldama have both been listed out or unavailable in the build-up, leaving Dallas vulnerable against an active interior rotation. That does not necessarily rule out a competitive first half if the Mavericks hit jumpers, but a full-game cover requires consistent defensive rebounding and a workable answer for Siakam.

Indiana Pacers: Home-Court Matchup

Haliburton put up 23 points and 12 assists in his return from a long Achilles absence, while Siakam scored 30 in the win at New Orleans. Ivica Zubac supplied a double-double and a credible rim presence. That combination gives Indiana a clear offensive identity: early passing decisions, spacing around Siakam and protection behind aggressive perimeter defenders.

Indiana was far from perfect: the Pelicans led late and forced Haliburton to take over in the fourth. Injuries involving Aaron Nesmith and T.J. McConnell could thin Indiana's bench playmaking. Still, the starters showed they can create high-quality attempts when an opponent's bigs are pulled into screening actions.

Matchup Dynamics and Injury Report

Zubac’s screening, rim finishing and rebounding become important against a Dallas frontcourt without Lively and Aldama. Haliburton registered 23 points and 12 assists in his first game back, while Siakam scored 30 in the win over New Orleans. Cooper Flagg’s 32-point opener gives Dallas a clear counter, but its thin big-man rotation makes second-chance defense difficult.

Dallas is without Dereck Lively II (foot surgery), Santi Aldama (knee), Caleb Martin (thumb) and Tarik Biberovic (heel), with Jett Howard doubtful because of calf tightness. Indiana lists T.J. McConnell (hamstring) and Johnny Furphy (ACL) out; Aaron Nesmith and Ben Sheppard are questionable.

2025-26 Home and Road Trends

In the 2025-26 regular season, Dallas went 15-26 against the spread on the road, while Indiana went 24-16 at home. Dallas road games finished with 15 Overs and 26 Unders, compared with 21 Overs and 20 Unders in Indiana home games. Those previous-season results provide context, but the current rotations and matchup dynamics determine the more relevant scoring opportunities.

Odds and Line Movement

Indiana has climbed from a 5.5-point opening favorite to -6.5 at DraftKings. The total is 237.5, up from roughly 235.5, as bettors anticipate a productive Pacers offense with Tyrese Haliburton back alongside Pascal Siakam.

Best Bet: Indiana Pacers -6.5

Indiana has enough offensive organization to justify a larger spread than it did in Thursday’s early prices. Haliburton’s passing pulls help toward the ball, while Siakam and Zubac can pressure Dallas inside. The Mavericks allowed 128 to Houston and have since confirmed multiple rotation absences.

The Pacers are not guaranteed another efficient night, particularly with Nesmith’s status uncertain, but they have cleaner routes to points in transition and through the pick-and-roll. Dallas needs a major defensive improvement from its opener to avoid another multi-possession defeat.

Moneyline Outlook

Indiana is a solid home favorite and carries the more stable offensive rotation. Dallas has shot creators in Irving and Flagg, but the Pacers’ size and Haliburton’s command of tempo make the home side the likelier winner.

Spread Outlook

Laying 6.5 asks Indiana to win by at least seven. The potential pressure points are offensive rebounding and Dallas’s interior rotation rather than a simplistic assumption that the Pacers will shoot exceptionally well again.

Total Outlook

The 237.5 total is higher than the opening number. Both teams can generate efficient shots, but Dallas’s ability to get stops and slow possessions after its opener remains an important obstacle to the Over.

Player Props to Watch

Tyrese Haliburton assists:

Twelve assists in the opener suggest Haliburton's passing timing has returned, although Dallas will try to deny his favorite lanes to Siakam and the rolling bigs.

Pascal Siakam points:

He scored 30 against New Orleans and should get a favorable set of mismatches against Dallas' thinner big rotation, assuming his minutes stay normal.

Final Prediction: Dallas Mavericks 120, Indiana Pacers 112

The projected final score is Dallas Mavericks 120 and Indiana Pacers 112, a combined 232 points. Best Bet: Indiana Pacers -6.5.

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