Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Wednesday October 28 2026

Denver and New Orleans have already produced one of the season's most entertaining games, a 141-135 Nuggets overtime victory on Saturday. Four days later the rematch shifts to New Orleans, where the Pelicans have a chance to address the defensive failures that allowed Jamal Murray to score 42 points. Denver is also trying to recover from a 134-114 home defeat against Golden State on Monday. The visitors have the more dependable offensive engine in Nikola Jokić, but the change of venue and the short rematch give the home underdog a legitimate path.

Best Available Odds for Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans

• Nuggets -4.5 (-110), Pelicans +4.5 (-110); New Orleans +5.5 (-115) available separately; Denver ML -198 / Pelicans ML +164; total 238.5–241.5

Game Info

• Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | 8:00 p.m. ET | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans Matchup Preview

Denver Nuggets: Offensive and Rotation Outlook

Jokić remains the matchup's organizing force. He can pass over a pressure defense, back down a small defender or turn a handoff into a clean Murray jump shot. Aaron Gordon provides a reliable cutter and strong finisher, while Christian Braun does much of the running and defensive work. The Nuggets are harder to contain when the ball moves quickly through the elbow rather than getting trapped in difficult perimeter isolations. New Orleans saw the danger of that versatility first-hand in the overtime meeting.

Denver does have a thinner wing rotation than it would prefer. Cameron Johnson is doubtful with an ankle injury, Julian Strawther is out and Spencer Jones is also unavailable. Those absences increase the pressure on the primary creators, especially if the Pelicans use a more aggressive perimeter defense than in the first game. Denver's defensive performance against Golden State was concerning: allowing 134 points while failing to match the opponent's perimeter activity shows that the Nuggets can be vulnerable when the game speeds up.

New Orleans Pelicans: Home-Court and Defensive Outlook

New Orleans can make Denver defend in very different ways. Zion Williamson attacks deep into the paint, Trey Murphy III can stretch the defense and Dejounte Murray provides the ball-handling to turn a defensive rebound into an immediate scoring chance. Jeremiah Fears adds another attacking guard, while Jordan Poole is available following an illness. Yves Missi is out, which leaves the Pelicans thinner at center and makes the glass a serious concern against Jokić.

The Pelicans must resist the urge to play every possession as a track meet. That contributed to 135 points in their first meeting but also gave Denver room to respond. Zion's strength can manufacture efficient close-range looks without a rushed shot, and Murphy's movement can punish an opponent that sits an extra defender in the lane. At home, New Orleans should be able to use its energy to pressure Denver's ball-handlers and keep the game close even when Jokić dominates the center of the floor.

Head-to-Head Matchup and Game Keys

The first matchup was decided only after an extra period, and much of its logic still applies. Denver has the superior offensive organizer, but New Orleans has attacking options that challenge its perimeter containment. The Pelicans need a better plan for Murray at the point of attack, particularly when Jokić screens away the defender. They also have to reduce second chances. If they solve even part of those problems, five-and-a-half points should be useful.

Game Thesis: Denver is rightly favored to win behind Jokić, but New Orleans can score enough through Williamson and its wings to keep the rematch inside two possessions.

Odds and Line Movement

Denver has been quoted as a favorite from 4.5 to 5.5 points, with the total around 239 to 241. The Pelicans receiving +5.5 is more attractive than the shorter +4.5 because the first meeting proved that both clubs can trade late baskets. The total is high, appropriately reflecting the offense from Saturday; the possibility of better defensive adjustments makes the spread preferable to betting another shootout.

Best Bet: New Orleans Pelicans +5.5 (-115)

New Orleans +5.5 is the pick. The Pelicans had enough production to put 135 on the board in Denver, and returning home should help their role players defend with greater energy. Denver can still execute better late, especially when Jokić and Murray are both involved in the same action, so the projection favors the Nuggets outright. New Orleans does not need to stop the two-man game completely; it needs to avoid the kind of extended defensive breakdown that turns a tight contest into a double-digit loss.

Moneyline, Spread and Total Outlook

The projected outcome is Denver 122, New Orleans 118. That four-point margin gives the Pelicans room against the +5.5 while retaining the more experienced Nuggets as the winner. The 240-point score is close to the posted total range, which again makes the side a stronger choice. A Pelicans upset is feasible if Williamson controls the paint and the home guards limit turnovers, but the spread protects against Denver's advantage in late-clock creation.

Top Player Prop Matchups

Nikola Jokić assists: New Orleans faces difficult choices about when to double him; his passing can create open cuts and perimeter chances.

Zion Williamson points: Denver must defend his first step without sending a foul-prone second defender, making his interior scoring a central matchup theme.

Final Prediction: Denver Nuggets 122, New Orleans Pelicans 118

Best Bet: New Orleans Pelicans +5.5 (-115). Projected final score: Denver Nuggets 122, New Orleans Pelicans 118.

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