Scheffler Tour Championship Chances at 25% | Kalshi Odds

Scottie Scheffler did not take the first-round lead at the 2026 Tour Championship, but prediction-market traders still see him as the golfer most likely to leave East Lake with the FedExCup.

Scheffler opened Thursday with a 5-under 65, leaving him tied for fifth and three shots behind Min Woo Lee.

The Tour Championship winner market on Kalshi currently gives Scheffler approximately a 25% chance to win.

That keeps the world No. 1 comfortably ahead of the field despite Lee's opening-round 62.

Eligible new users can use Kalshi promo code WINNERS and qualify for up to $500 in bonus credit after completing the current qualifying requirements. The exact bonus amount varies, and eligibility and geographic restrictions apply.

Scottie Scheffler Tour Championship Chances at 25%

Scheffler remains the clear favorite in Kalshi's live Tour Championship market entering Friday's second round.

The separation is notable because Scheffler does not hold the lead.

Lee enters Round 2 at 8-under.

Morikawa, Hovland and Gotterup are tied for second at 6-under.

Scheffler is part of the next group at 5-under after signing for a 65.

Kalshi traders are therefore pricing more than the current leaderboard.

Scheffler's form, season-long performance and ability to contend over the remaining 54 holes are keeping his championship probability well above every other individual player.

Min Woo Lee Leads After Opening 62

Lee produced the round of the day Thursday.

He made eight birdies without a bogey to shoot an 8-under 62, tying his career-low PGA Tour round and taking a two-shot advantage into Friday.

Hovland, Morikawa and Gotterup followed at 6-under after rounds of 64.

Scheffler stayed close with a 65.

That leaves only three shots separating the market favorite from the lead with three rounds remaining.

It is also why Lee's live probability has climbed substantially.

Kalshi now gives Lee roughly a 9% chance of winning, placing him alongside Morikawa as the closest market challenger to Scheffler.

For additional tournament coverage, visit the latest PGA picks and predictions and PGA player prop picks at Winners & Whiners.

Scheffler Shot 65 Despite Recent Health Concerns

Scheffler arrived in Atlanta after dealing with hand, foot and mouth disease during last week's BMW Championship.

He estimated before Thursday's round that he was approximately 95% recovered.

The illness did not prevent him from remaining competitive at the BMW, where he finished tied for 12th, and his opening round at East Lake suggested he is still capable of making a serious run at the title.

Scheffler recorded a 5-under 65 Thursday and finished the day three behind Lee.

That is a strong enough position for Kalshi traders to continue making him the tournament favorite.

The next question is whether he can begin closing the gap Friday.

Scheffler Tees Off at 1:24 PM Friday

Scheffler will play Round 2 alongside Ludvig Åberg.

Their group is scheduled to tee off from the first hole at 1:24 PM ET.

Åberg also opened with a 65 and is tied with Scheffler at 5-under.

The final pairing will feature Lee and Hovland at 2:00 PM ET.

That gives the live market several hours of potential movement Friday.

If Scheffler moves up the leaderboard before Lee begins his round, his 25% probability could rise even without taking the outright lead.

If Lee extends his advantage, the market could begin shifting more championship probability toward the first-round leader.

The Tour Championship Field Is Down to 29 Players

The Tour Championship began with the top 30 players in the FedExCup standings.

Unlike the old staggered-start format, every player began the tournament at even par.

That means the Tour Championship leaderboard itself determines the FedExCup champion.

The active field dropped to 29 players Thursday after J.J. Spaun withdrew with a shoulder issue.

There is no cut at the Tour Championship, so every remaining player can compete through Sunday barring another withdrawal.

For Scheffler, that means his three-shot deficit is the only meaningful gap he needs to erase.

There is no starting-strokes advantage protecting him despite entering the week as the FedExCup points leader.

Why Is Scheffler Still the Kalshi Favorite?

The market's 25% estimate reflects Scheffler's position relative to the entire field rather than simply the player currently leading.

He entered East Lake as the dominant favorite before the tournament.

Thursday's 65 did little to damage that position.

Scheffler is only three strokes off the lead and has 54 holes remaining.

Lee's 62 was exceptional, but maintaining that scoring pace for four rounds is a different challenge.

Morikawa, Gotterup and Hovland are also positioned ahead of Scheffler, but Kalshi still prices each of them well below the favorite.

That creates the central market story entering Friday.

Scheffler does not lead the golf tournament.

He does lead the probability market.

What Could Move Scheffler's Tour Championship Odds?

Friday's second round is the most immediate catalyst.

A move into the lead could send Scheffler's probability sharply higher.

Even getting within one shot of the lead before the weekend could reinforce his status as the clear favorite.

Lee is the other major variable.

If the Australian follows his 62 with another strong round, traders may have to give considerably more weight to his position at the top of the leaderboard.

Morikawa, Gotterup and Hovland also begin Friday ahead of Scheffler.

The market could therefore become much more compressed if one or more of those players creates separation.

On the other hand, a Scheffler surge combined with regression from Thursday's leaders could quickly turn a 25% market into something much larger.

How the Kalshi Tour Championship Market Works

Kalshi's tournament-winner contracts ask whether an individual golfer will win the Tour Championship.

A Yes position on Scheffler resolves at $1 if he officially wins the tournament.

If another golfer wins, the Scheffler Yes contract resolves at $0.

The market price changes throughout the event as traders respond to scores, leaderboard position, player health and other tournament developments.

That means the current 25% figure should be treated as a live market-implied probability rather than a fixed prediction.

Kalshi Promo Code WINNERS

Eligible new users can enter promo code WINNERS when creating a Kalshi account.

The current Winners & Whiners offer allows qualifying new users to receive up to $500 in bonus credit after completing the required trading activity.

The exact bonus amount varies.

Eligibility, location restrictions and additional terms apply.

Users should review the current promotional terms and individual contract rules before trading.

Prediction-market contracts involve financial risk, including the possibility of losing the amount paid for an unsuccessful position.

Can Scottie Scheffler Win the Tour Championship?

Kalshi currently gives him a 25% chance.

That makes Scheffler the clear favorite even though Lee owns the actual tournament lead.

Scheffler begins Friday at 5-under, three shots back after an opening 65.

Lee leads at 8-under following his 62, while Morikawa, Hovland and Gotterup sit between them at 6-under.

The leaderboard says Scheffler has work to do.

The prediction market says he remains the player most likely to win.

Round 2 will determine whether those two pictures begin moving closer together.